Bear Market Forecast.... Two Possibilities
Hello everyone, i thought i would make my first post ever on the r/btc to let you know that it will only get a tiny bit worse from here if that is what the market decides to do.
As you can see by my magic lines, BTC is destined to test the 300 week SMA.
There is around an 87.52% chance (In MY opinion) that we test it before this year is over.
HOWEVER, there is a precedent that i have noticed based on past cycles that give us two possible scenarios of how this bear market will play out.
Possibility 1 - Time Based Capitulation & Seller Exhaustion:
In this scenario the 300 SMA is tested, and holds. We end up bouncing between the 200 Day SMA and 300 Week SMA until Oct/Nov bleeding everyone out slowly and faking them out with fake out rallies between 400 week SMA to the 200 Day SMA all the way until Q4 this year.
Possibility 2 - Price Based Capitulation:
In this scenario the 300 week SMA gets tested, and at some point fails. It can be after a successful bounce off of the 300 week SMA, nothing is guaranteed. If that is the case Bitcoin will head down to test the 400 week SMA and it will bounce from there. If this scenario happens it will be price based capitulation.
2017 tested the 200 week SMA and didn't break it.
2020 Broke the 200 Week, and didnt test the 300 week.
2022 Broke the 200 week and tested 300 week.
2025 My personal opinion is it will break the 300 week SMA this cycle, and test the 400 week.
A test of the 400 SMA will still put us at only a 65% draw down this cycle, which is much less volatile than past cycles and aligns with all the institutional adoption hype.
Okay, Let the roasting begin!
Thanks everyone, and remember no one can time the bottom so DCA and keep stacking sats.
EDIT: Fixed my dates.
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