**Bitcoin 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook – Bullish vs. Bearish Factors**

I recently wrote a post on why banks actually love Bitcoin. Building on that, here’s a concise recap of 2025 and an outlook for 2026, focusing on the key forces shaping Bitcoin.

No price predictions. Just mapping incentives, supply, liquidity, and regulation.

Bitcoin 2025: What mattered

Bullish factors

• Spot ETF adoption
  Persistent, largely price-insensitive demand absorbed market supply.

• Post-halving supply dynamics
  Reduced issuance tightened supply throughout the year.

• Institutional legitimacy
  Improved US regulatory clarity lowered entry barriers.

• Macro hedge narrative
  Debt expansion and fiscal dominance reinforced the hard-money thesis.

• Rising illiquid supply
  Long-term holders continued accumulating.

Bearish / limiting factors

• High real interest rates
  Cash and money market funds stayed competitive.

• ETF-related volatility suppression
  Hedging dampened momentum near key levels.

• Profit-taking after rallies
  Distribution capped upside phases.

• Risk-off macro events
  Geopolitics and recession fears caused selloffs.

Bitcoin 2026: What could matter

Bullish factors

• Easing monetary policy / liquidity expansion
  Historically supportive for scarce assets.

• Banks & balance-sheet use of Bitcoin (legislation-dependent)
  With favorable capital treatment and custody rules, Bitcoin could become a strategic bank balance-sheet asset.
  This directly connects to why banks may want Bitcoin rather than oppose it.

• Structural supply shortage
  Post-halving issuance remains low while demand persists.

• Corporate treasury adoption
  Even small allocations can have outsized impact.

• Bitcoin as collateral & reserve asset
  Growing use in lending and balance-sheet optimization.

Bearish risks

• Higher-for-longer rates
  Delay risk-on capital rotation.

• Strong US dollar
  Tightens global liquidity.

• Political / regulatory uncertainty
  Election cycles may slow adoption.

• ETF saturation
  Diminishing marginal impact of inflows.

TL;DR

• 2025 = structural adoption (ETFs, post-halving, institutions)
  
• 2026 = banks + regulation may decide whether Bitcoin becomes a permanent macro asset

Discussion:
Which factors do you see as most underappreciated going into 2026?