Bitcoin and Macroeconomics

Hey everyone, I’ve been a long-term Bitcoin investor and have largely met my return goals by holding. However, after diving deeper into macroeconomics, I believe Bitcoin’s price is heavily influenced by broader economic trends. In the next 6–12 months, I expect economic conditions to deteriorate, with the Fed’s response—especially to inflation and labor market data—determining whether we enter a bull or bear market.

That said, I have two reasons for not selling my Bitcoin:

1. A potential federal Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) announcement under a Trump administration, which could drive prices up. 2. If inflation stays below 3%, tightening liquidity may push the Fed to ease QT, supporting asset prices. 

Given this outlook, would it make sense to hedge with S&P 500 put options expiring in Q4 2025, or would that be too risky? Curious to hear your thoughts!