Bitcoin’s Triple Threat: On-Chain, Fundamental, and Technical Outlook

The first and most obvious sign that Bitcoin is about to be sold off is the policy of global central banks. While everyone is waiting for the outcome of the Bank of Japan's meeting — whose rate hikes have always coincided with a 20% drop in BTC prices — pay attention to Europe.

The central banks of the European Union, Norway and Sweden have frozen rates, and the tightening of monetary policy is beginning to take on the characteristics of a global trend. The Federal Reserve's head has also hinted at a freeze, and Australia and China are extending theirs too.

The second signal is on-chain characteristics. The average size of BTC deposits on the Binance exchange grew from 12 BTC in November to 37 BTC by 18–19 December. This indicates that large investors ("whales") are actively transferring coins to exchanges for sale.

From a technical analysis perspective, the decline on the weekly chart is accelerating, as confirmed by increased trading volumes. This could help the bears break through the strong support zone of $90k–$80k. The upward trend was definitively broken when the psychological mark of $100K was broken through. Bitcoin will only find buyers at the 'Trump level' of around $60K, where the cryptocurrency's pre-election rally began.

The US President has failed to deliver on his promises to establish a clear legislative framework for the regulation and circulation of digital assets. The Senate has postponed the adoption of the main law, and if there are no clear signs of change by January, I expect the above scenario to play out.