Formula to calculate half-life of BCH Hedge, paying monthly txn fees + interest rate (Hedge rate), incl. Python code. $10 halves in 27 years, paying 0.2%/month.

HalfLife = log((A₀/2+Fee/r)/(A₀+Fee/r))/log(1-r)/12

An = (A₀+Fee/r)(1-r)^(12n)-Fee/r

from math import log def HalfLife(A0,Fee,r): return log((A0/2+Fee/r)/(A0+Fee/r))/log(1-r)/12 def An(A0,Fee,r,n): return (A0+Fee/r)*(1-r)**(12*n)-Fee/r 

where A₀ is initial Amount ($ or BCH), Fee is the total txn fees per month, r is the decimal monthly interest rate, & An is the amount after n years.

Here is an AnyHedge Contract address whose history consists of making & exiting a Hedge. It's under 1kB, so Fee is 0.11 cents if that's all which is required every month. Some months may require multiple Hedges though if a stop-loss is triggered (protection against faulty price or scam oracles).

But what rate r? Assuming Bitcoin Cash being used as a BTC Cash payment system achieves the lowest possible rate, maybe 0.2%/month (r=.002). That's 2.4% p.a. to cover the BCH Bulls' trading expenses. A Bull could sell half his BCH for BTC & go 2x long on the other half, earning 2.4% p.a. yield. But maybe people Hedge en masse if BCH/BTC is obviously about to go down. Every market-take requires paying a spread, btwn bid & ask, & so 2.4% p.a. may not be sufficient. Maybe 0.5%/month is more realistic, & it's variable. Above 2%/month is considered usury, unless it's a Hedge-rate.

Speaking of $ is a little misleading, but what could be most popular is a BCH Hedge to BTC (Store-of-Value) using $ as the Unit-of-Account! The wallet value does whatever BTC's price does, but we count it in $, even though it's all on BCH's blockchain. BCH can be thought of as a Hedge-to-Value, the Value Hedged to everything else.

What is a reasonable amount? $1, $10 & $100 have half-lifes 16, 27 & 29 years. So $10 is a reasonable Hedge, but $1 isn't necessarily enough to cover the 0.11c fees. However if BCH price went up (e.g. 10x) the minimum amount would 10x too. To calculate in Electron Cash console:

HalfLife(1,.0011,.002) HalfLife(10,.0011,.002) HalfLife(100,.0011,.002) 

To check the $10 half-life, enter

An(10,.0011,.002,26.7) 

Unfortunately BCH currently doesn't support Hedging with variable maturity, imho. I've been discussing the issue over at BitcoinCashResearch. A new OpCode, OP_CHECKBLOCKHEIGHTVERIFY (with 6-conf lock, OP_CBHV) would guarantee Hedge can Exit whenever they want without Bull's signature.

I doubt AnyHedge will achieve mass-adoption without a new OpCode. If BCH could enable grocery & fuel money to be Hedged to BTC (or XAU, etc) then maybe. However without OP_CBHV a smartphone would have to keep re-Hedging every few hrs & the person has to predict a few hrs in advance to disable the auto-re-Hedge. Also, a multisig escrow is inconvenient because escrow+vendor have to keep signing each re-Hedge since a shipment could take any amount of time. We can't write a BCH Script which determines the block-height of the blockchain without a new OpCode. AnyHedge might still work if the Bulls are always online to auto-sign the Hedge-Exit (to pay for groceries instantly, etc). Like a LightNing channel, a trusted counterparty should be required.

Instead of the BCHN full node wallet Hedging to BTC the way it should, CashTokens could enable it to hodl some official BTC CashToken (yield bearing?). The wallet isn't necessarily valid if its value isn't linked to BTC. That's if it's mining Bitcoin, using the same PoW. It deserves Bitcoin's actual value.

If Satoshi wanted to fork his own chain, surely he'd Hedge the new full node wallet to BTC. His whitepaper seems consistent with Bitcoin being both a Store-of-Value & a Hedge-to-Value. BCH can enable Bitcoin's true value to be spread to the masses in a decentralized way. It's an alternative to the LightningNetwork which may be cheaper if the Hedge rate is low enough. Only BCH/BTC price oracle/s would be needed by the nodes.

submitted by /u/TinosNitso to r/btc
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Quelle: bitcoin-en