Hypothesis: predictions markets will only be really effective if based on sound currencies

I am quite skeptical of current such markets that are based on knock-offs of unsound money like USD(C).

It would be a very different proposition if such a market executed directly on the basis of a sound, non-inflationary, well-distributed electronic currency (and offered its users to temporarily swap into that for the purposes of using it).

While unsound money is flush and can be printed right out of the vacuum without repercussions on the cartels involved, it can severely distort money-based prediction markets.

I think for such markets to be useful, the majority of the funds put in should come from people who are not otherwise in control of the outcomes (except by making the market "speak", or "voting with their wallets").

Otherwise you end up with the same oligarchy being able to use these markets as instruments of legitimizing their decisions and funneling even more wealth from the masses to themselves at the same time.