I tested DCA vs Lump Sum 50+ times. Lump Sum wins 81% of the time

I’ve seen so many people say “just DCA, bro”.

So I got curious and ran the numbers myself using a Bitcoin DCA calculator.

Here’s what I tested:

• Fixed amount of cash (e.g., $44k)
• Strategy 1: Lump Sum – buy all at once
• Strategy 2: Weekly DCA
• Backtested over dozens of start dates since 2014

The Result?

Lump Sum beats DCA ~81% of the time.

Why? Because Bitcoin usually goes up over time.

Waiting to enter the market just delays exposure to upside.

DCA only won in a few cases — and only when I happened to start right before a major crash (like late 2021).

But those are rare and hard to predict.

So here’s the tradeoff:

• Lump Sum = better average outcome
• DCA = better sleep at night

If you’re sitting on a big cash stack and thinking about easing in… just know that historically, you’re paying for that emotional buffer.

The math is clear: unless you know a crash is coming, Lump Sum gives you more Bitcoin.

Happy stacking.