Just straight Macroeconomics
What happens to Bitcoin when interest rate increases: increase downward price pressure.
- Higher opportunity cost to invest elsewhere.
- Reduced liquidity results in costlier borrowing
With the US having $40T debt, servicing that debt will cost more. 5%+, 10 year yield could be the norm, like it was back in the 1980s and 1990s. Bitcoin benefitted from quantitative easing and near zero Fed fund rates. Those days are over, as the US runaway debt spirals.
I still think Bitcoin will go up long term as traders and investors adjust to the "new norm", but not at the rate as it had before. The call for it to hit $1M by 2030 is ridiculous.
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