Macro BTC Analysis & Discussion

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TL;DR: My thoughts are that BTC is not currently in a confirmed bear market. From a macro, monthly structure perspective, as long as ~74k holds on a monthly close, the higher-timeframe bull structure remains intact. At the same time, monthly volatility has been compressed for over a year, suggesting a meaningful expansion phase is more likely sooner rather than later. Direction isn’t guaranteed — but structure still favours continuation unless that higher low breaks.
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I want to share this chart as a way of thinking about Bitcoin in terms of macro structure, rather than narratives or rigid cycle assumptions. This is a long-term Fibonacci extension drawn using major historical pivots: the early BTC genesis low (2009–2010), the 2017 cycle high, and the 2018 bear-market low. Volatility, represented by Caretaker’s BBWP indicator (Bollinger Band Width Percentile, length 13, lookback 252), is at the bottom. The goal here isn’t strict prediction (although it kind of is) — it’s to map out higher-timeframe structure.

What stands out to me is how closely the current market is respecting these levels. The 4.236 extension around ~87k lines up almost perfectly with BTC’s most recent support zone, while the 3.618 extension around ~74k aligns with the current monthly higher low. For me, that ~74k level is the key structural line in the sand. As long as BTC holds above it on a monthly closing basis, higher-timeframe structure and trend remains intact with higher-highs and higher-lows. A clean monthly close below that level, followed by a failed reclaim, would be my signal that a true bear-market regime is likely.

Above current price, the higher Fibonacci extensions — roughly the 6.854 and 10.618 levels — cluster in the high-100k to low-200k range. These aren’t targets so much as zones where long-term extensions naturally converge if the current structure continues to resolve upward. The box labeled “EOY 2026 / Early 2027” is a structural zone with a bit of honest hopium, not a call for an exact top.

One additional piece that makes this setup interesting to me is volatility. On the monthly timeframe, volatility as measured by the BBWP has been in an extreme compression regime (50, which we have not yet seen for the current run.

This chart is meant as a framework, not a call for tops or bottoms. It’s about identifying where structure breaks versus where it remains valid. As long as the monthly higher low around ~74k holds, I find it difficult to justify strong bear-market conviction purely from a structural standpoint until that level breaks on a monthly close.

I’m posting this to get other perspectives, especially from people who focus on higher-timeframe structure rather than cycle timing or short-term indicators. If you see flaws in the anchoring, interpretation, or assumptions here, I’d genuinely like to hear them.

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Honest Disclaimer: AI helped turn scattered thoughts into readable English. The ideas (and any bad takes) are still very much my own.
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