My take on why btc might range for another 3 to 6 months

We are the most bullish stage of btc ever but price is stalled.

I believe it can remain so for a few more months:

• M2 supply which is highly correlated to btc needs to increase first, and for now the FED is still on quantitative tightening mode, so if in march they stop the QT process or even start quantitative easing, it could be a catalyst
• the US has around 6 months to either approve or reject the SBR (I believe it will pass) which puts it around june/july, another potential catalyst for btc
• we have been seeing transfers of btc (on chain) from binance and coinbase to wintermute, and wintermute (a market maker) performs OTC transactions between parties, which effectively don’t affect the price of btc: and to me this can either mean one of two things:

1. They are actively suppressing the price by countering all the buys in the market in order to let institutions, governments etc to accumulate at a lower price covertly, or
2. There are players that are buying btc over the counter accumulating without moving the price.

Either way, this could go on for several months until the approval of btc SBR according to the btc reserves in binance and coinbase.

I speculate that btc will only top by end of year due to this, and altcoins will see a very late rally, because btc first needs to attract retail, go up in dominance and finally drop the dominance as whales rotate to smaller coins.

That’s just my speculation. What are your thoughts?