Observations on the Price Effects of a Fork
Observed law: The amount the token price drops in light of a fork seems to be proportional to the success (price and hashrate) of the chain that splits off.
Some examples:
In the case of Bitcoin SV, BSV was more “successful” (price and hashrate) than BCHA. As such, BSV “took more value” from Bitcoin Cash than BCHA did.
Before the BSV fork, BCH was actually 400-600 dollar range. After the fork, the price of BCH dropped considerably. I’d argue the BCH price still hasn’t fully recovered from this split.
In contrast to this, BCHA was a very unsuccessful fork (low price and low hashrate). As such, BCHA caused a smaller drop in price to Bitcoin Cash. BCH was also much quicker to recover from it, price-wise.
I believe this same "law" applies with the original BTC and BCH split as well.
Conclusion:
From an economic point of view, this is why it's important to avoid forks and also why it is important to actually dis-incentivize them from happening.
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